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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 23rd of May 2025
This week, traders are closely watching the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25-basis point cut, bringing rates from 3.5% down to 3.25%. It’s worth noting that the New Zealand economy has emerged from the technical recession it experienced last year, posting a growth rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of this year. Despite this recovery, pressure persists on the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates further to stimulate economic activity.
Markets are also awaiting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s press conference following the rate announcement to gain clearer insight into its monetary policy outlook and assess the central bank’s willingness to continue with further easing measures.
Meanwhile, traders will also focus on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes this week, which will shed light on the discussions among Federal Open Market Committee members leading up to their recent policy decision. These minutes offer details on the members’ views regarding the performance of the U.S. economy and the appropriate monetary stance during the period and may provide valuable clues about the likely direction of policy in the near term, helping traders better price in future expectations.
Toward the end of the week, markets will turn their attention to key U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) is projected to decline from 2.3% in March to 2.2% in April, while the core PCE index (excluding food and energy) is expected to remain steady at 2.6%.
At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, citing uncertainty surrounding tariff developments and expressing a preference to wait for the outcome of the Trump administration’s trade negotiations before making any policy adjustments.
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