Weekly Market Preview
Monday, August 28, 2023
Markets will be eagerly anticipating a set of key economic data releases this week of the world’s largest economies. Investors are poised to gain more insights about the US economy through crucial reports such as the US jobs report for August. This report will shed light on the performance of the labour market, while the US consumer spending index for July, a key metric for the Federal Reserve’s inflation assessment, will also be closely watched.
The above-mentioned data will have a substantial weight in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September decision whether to hike 25 basis point, pushing rates to 5.75%, or maintain the current 5.5% rate. It’s noteworthy that markets have not priced in any rate hikes, as they await the outcome of these data releases, including the US CPI report for August.
On the other side of the pond, the European Central Bank rate’s decision of September will hinge on the inflation levels of August due this week. It is noteworthy that any higher than 5% level are likely to lead the central bank to continue its rate hike cycle. However, it’s crucial to consider the trajectory of European growth, which might experience further decline due to the concurrent rise in interest rates. Indicators like the manufacturing PMI remains below the-50 threshold, and recently the services sector PMI has dropped below 50 for the first time this year, suggesting that the European economy could be heading to stagflation.