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Weekly Market Preview

Week Ahead Preview:

5th of February

 

Monday, Feb 05, 2024

Last week, markets concluded that the Federal Reserve was moving towards cutting interest rates, although not at the March meeting. Several factors contribute to this outlook, including robust American data. For instance, the (Q4) US GDP 3.3% came in higher than expected of 2%. The YoY Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline remains at 3.4%, exceeding its designated target of 2%. Additionally, strong labour market revealed the addition of 353,000 jobs in January. Moreover, Fed Chairman Mr. Powell dismissed the possibility of cutting rates in the March meeting, emphasising the need for more evidence confirming the trend of declining inflation levels before initiating interest rate cuts.

This week is less compact in terms of data compared to previous weeks. The focus will be on the interest rate decision of the Australian Reserve which is expected to maintain rates at 4.35%, despite a significant decline in December’s inflation levels as the YoY consumer price index headline remains at 4.1% (more than double of its target). Market participants will closely follow Australian Reserve Governor’s press conference to gain further insights into the direction of monetary policy in the coming months.

Investors will also pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve members during the current week, seeking more clarity about the timing of the series of interest rate cuts. Market expectations lean towards the first cut in US interest rates occurring in the second quarter of this year, either in the May and June meetings.

 

Economic Data Highlights (As per UAE time) 

 

Monday 5th of February
  • USD- ISM PMI service sector (Jan)
Tuesday 6th of February
  • RBA interest rate decision and press conference
  • AUD- Retail Sales (Dec)
  • GBP- Retail Sales (Jan)
  • EUR- Retail Sales (Dec)
  • Fed Mister speech
Wednesday 7th of February
  • NZD- Unemployment rates (Q4)
  • GBP- Housing price index (Jan)
  • USD- Trade balance (Jan)
  • CAD- Trade balance (Jan)
  • Fed Kulger, Barkin and Bowman speeches
  • US crude oil inventories
Thursday 8th of February 
  • CNY- Inflation rates (Jan)
  • Fed Bakin speech
Friday 9th of February 
  • EUR- German inflation rates (Jan)
  • CAD- Unemployment rates (Jan)

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