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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 3 October 2025
Markets are preparing for a week packed with key economic data and central bank updates, particularly speeches from monetary policymakers. The spotlight will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision and its accompanying monetary policy statement. Market expectations point to a sharp 50-basis-point cut, lowering rates from 3.00% to 2.50%. The move is driven largely by the need to stimulate an economy that contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter. Adding further pressure, the Trump administration’s recent 15% tariff on New Zealand exports threatens to weigh on growth.
In the U.S., traders will closely analyse the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting, where the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in response to clear signs of labour market weakness. The minutes would provide more insight into policymakers’ discussions, their assessment of economic conditions, and potential clues about future policy moves.
Attention will then shift to the U.S. jobs report for September, which was delayed last week due to the government shutdown. Its release depends on whether the shutdown ends, raising the possibility of another postponement. The report will offer a detailed picture of the labour market, including job creation, unemployment, and wage growth, key indicators guiding Fed policy decisions.
The latest data highlights the challenges facing the Fed, the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, well below the forecast of 75,000, underscoring labor market weakness and prompting the September rate cut. For September, markets are expecting an improvement, with forecasts of 51,000 jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.
Monday, 6th of Oct
Tuesday, 7th of Oct
Wednesday, 8th of Oct
Thursday, 9th of Oct
Friday, 10th of Oct
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