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Trends & Analysis
News

Target posts a miss, Lowe’s tops views on earnings

News

EUR/GBP Price May Correct Higher

News

Gold gains over 1% amid geopolitical concerns

News

AUD/USD Price Amid Diverging Central Banks Policies

News

Dow surges 100 points despite Moody’s downgrade

News

USD rises for 4th straight week on economic data

Asset Watch

Will Tesla channel its inner bull?

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

On Jul. 2, Tesla announced that second-quarter deliveries came in at 254,695 versus the expected 256,520 (an increase of 26.5% year-over-year (YoY)). Considering the current supply-chain disruptions and the recent COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the in-line figure was suitable.
Goldman Sachs flow trader Scott Rubner notes, “we are entering the best two-week period of the year” from an S&P 500 seasonality perspective. He adds that “1H July is the best period from now until July 17,” so if the S&P 500 rallies, Tesla may be a material beneficiary.
Tesla Stock Chart Trading View

Goldman Sachs data also shows that median monthly flows into ETFs and mutual funds are the second-most negative in June. As a result, U.S. equities’ recent suffering has historical precedent. In contrast, median monthly flows in July are the second-highest during the July to December months, only surpassed by the optimism often seen in November.

 

Since Tesla is more volatile than the S&P 500, a short-term rally could allow the EV giant to challenge the upper trendline of its ominous bear flag pattern. The top of the channel implies a nearly 14% rally from the Jul. 1 close. However, a breakdown below support of roughly $625 could open the floodgates to much lower prices.

 

So, will seasonality and bullish fund flows drive Tesla higher this week?


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