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Analysis

EU Elections 2024:
Key dates for traders

Disclaimer: This article is an educational guide to CFD trading and the financial markets and should not be considered as advice. Trading CFDs is high risk. Always ensure you understand the potential risks and rewards associated with trading before you trade.

European parliamentary election

From 6 to 9 June 2024, the European Union runs a coordinated series of elections, one taking place in each member state, to elect a new European parliament. Despite this election being one of the biggest democratic exercises in the world, its market impact is muted.

The impact the election has on the stock market is curtailed by the lack of real power in the European parliament when compared to national governments – the market may react more strongly to the number of local and national elections taking place in EU member countries at the same time. As to the parliamentary election, turnout is low in most countries, and the power of MEPs to shape policy is very limited.

 

European markets to watch

Most traders will be looking out for any shock results that could destabilise overall European markets, with losses by centrist parties and gains on the fringe are likely to be bad for the Euro. But overall, the market impact of this election is likely to be small.

Unlike the US Presidential elections or the UK General Election, also scheduled for 2024, European elections are not a major market event. Even so, traders exposed to EU stocks or the Euro need to be aware of the dates of the election, and of expected result announcements, as these could see heightened, if not fleeting, volatility.

 

EU elections 2024: key dates

Market holidays and volatility

Some individual member states have events in or around the election dates, which will see market closures and potentially increased disruption when they reopen: the most important being Portugal Day on 10 June, which is also a national and market holiday. It is likely that when markets reopen, they will face additional volatility from the election, but given results normally take days or weeks to be announced, significant volatility is not predicted for Portuguese markets.

Forex markets will continue live trading through the entire week, closing on 8 and 9 June for the weekend.

The elections and results

Since over 400 million people in 27 countries are eligible to vote, the European elections do not take place on a single day, but vary from country to country, with the greatest number opening polls on Sunday 9 June. That means markets are open during the elections in some states, but not the majority which go to the polls on the 9th.

Regardless of the voting day, results can take weeks to be confirmed, since all national governments must publish the result simultaneously. This policy is intended to prevent early results influencing the voting of countries that have not yet voted, causing uncertainty about the outcome during the election. Because of this policy and associated bans on election reporting, traders can expect a subdued market until the results are publicised.

 

Trading the EU elections – what traders need to know

European elections are not major market events, but traders who are active in European stock markets or who trade Euros as one part of a currency pair may be impacted. As you can read here, performance by the ECR and ID groups may lead to Euro weakness, as could significant underperformance by the centrist EPP and SD groups. Though polling averages can signal a likely outcome, market reaction is expected to be muted, with a brief spike in volatility followed by a correction.

 

EU Parliamentary elections: do they matter to traders?

In comparison with other elections, the European election market impact is small, though CFD traders active in European stocks or FX markets may benefit from trading opportunities around the result. CFD traders require volatility to make profits, whether they are active in stocks, indices or FX markets, so the potential for brief price swings around the result announcement are an interesting prospect for ADSS CFD traders.

FAQs

When are the next European elections?

The next European parliamentary elections will happen from 6 to 9 June 2024. Most member states will hold the election on the 9th, and results will start coming in the night.

What markets could be affected by the election result?

No one can say for sure whether or which markets will be affected by the result, but the run-up and aftermath of the election are likely to see increased volatility in the EUR, the currencies of non-Eurozone member states (such as Sweden, Romania, and Poland), and European stocks and stock indices.

Are the EU elections a major market event?

For various reasons, EU elections are not typically significant market events, but they can contribute to volatility in key markets. An unexpected result or one that leaves many centrist parties in doubt could see a larger market response.


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