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Friday, September 04, 2026
What’s happening: The Australian dollar traded higher versus the US dollar this morning amid rising prospects of a near-term interest rate hike.
What happened: The AUD/USD forex pair jumped to a four-month high despite strength in the greenback this morning.
Investors also digested the latest economic data from Australia, while awaiting the key jobs report from the US.
Why it matters: Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting this month in case inflationary concerns continue to ease.
Following these comments from Waller, investors lowering speculations of a rate hike by the Fed later this month, which weighed on the US dollar.
Meanwhile, Australia’s upbeat economic growth data for the second quarter reinforced speculations of the Reserve Bank of Australia resuming policy tightening after raising interest rates three times this year.
Data released on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus shrank to A$1.93 billion in July from A$2.34 billion in the previous month but came in above market estimates of A$1.40 billion.
Australia’s S&P Global composite PMI rose to 52.7 in August from a flash reading of 52.5 but came in lower than the previous month’s 53.2. Australia’s services PMI business activity index was also revised higher to 53.2 in August, from the preliminary reading of 52.9 but below July’s level of 53.6.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.1% to 98.98 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair rose around 0.2% to 0.7212, hitting a four-month high this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.1% to trade at 9,010.90.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the RBA’s monetary policy outlook. Markets also await the release of US jobs data (1630 UAE Time) today.
Context: US stocks rose sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index adding more than 600 points following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
Details: Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting this month in case inflationary concerns continue to ease.
Following Waller’s remarks, investors lowered speculations of the Fed hiking interest rates at its upcoming meeting this month.
The benchmark US Treasury yield also eased for the second consecutive session after hitting its strongest level since November 2023.
Strong economic reports released on Thursday also provided a boost to market sentiment. The ISM services PMI jumped to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in the previous month, topping market estimates of 54.3. This marked the strongest expansion in the services sector in six months.
Initial jobless claims rose slightly by 2,000 to 206,000 in the fourth week of August, compared to market estimates of 205,000.
On the earnings front, Snowflake’s shares jumped more than 16% after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly results and issued upbeat annual revenue forecast. Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s stock climbed around 5% following upbeat fiscal 2026 third-quarter results and higher fiscal-year guidance.
Of the 11 major sectors, consumer discretionary was among the top performer, while energy stocks recorded losses.
All three major US stock indices settled higher on Thursday.
The Dow Jones index jumped 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to close at 53,686.11, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.06% to 7,747.71 and the Nasdaq 100 surged 1.16% to settle at 29,482.32.
What to watch: The NFP report will be released today (1630 UAE Time). Nonfarm payrolls in the US, which declined by 23,000 in July, are expected to rise by 56,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, which rose by 0.1% to $37.62 in July, are expected to surge by 0.3% in August.
Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Thursday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.70%, 0.63%, 0.07% and 0.49%, respectively.
During talks with Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrii Sybiha, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that his country was ready to extend “any help” to end the ongoing war with Russia. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s household spending fell 3.6% year-over-year in July, following a 3.3% decline in the previous month. The latest reading signalling a contraction for the eighth straight month lent support to the USD/JPY forex pair.
Eurozone’s producer prices rose by 1.6% in July, after a 0.3% decline in June, which sent the EUR/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
UK’s S&P Global composite PMI jumped to 52.5 in August from 52.2 in the previous month, lending support to the GBP/USD forex pair.
Vietnam’s retail sales surged by 14.9% year-over-year in August, after a 14.5% gain in the previous month. Although this marked the strongest rise since January 2023, the USD/VND pair rose in forex trading this morning.
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