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Tuesday, September 08, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices traded lower this morning as investors monitored the recent developments between the US and Iran.
What happened: Iran warned of retaliation against any attacks by the US, increasing concerns over energy supply.
Brent crude oil pared some gains this morning after surging to its strongest level since July 24 on Monday.
Why it matters: Iran threatened to attack energy infrastructure across the Middle East in case the US launched further strikes on its assets. The latest warning followed attacks by both countries over the weekend, with no signs of a peace deal.
The US military announced attacks on three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, following Iran’s strikes on US warships. An attack was also reported on Saudi Aramco’s facilities near the Red Sea on Monday.
Iran said that it was nearing an agreement with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over Tehran’s rising control of the key waterway.
Crude oil prices jumped around 10% last week as continued unrest between the US and Iran raised concerns over further disruptions to oil supplies. Despite the tensions, crude oil continues to flow from the Persian Gulf, with around 7 million bps (barrels per day) of crude and refined products passing through the key route.
Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs boosted their oil price projections by $5 for December, now seeing Brent and WTI prices surging to $85 and $80, respectively. They also raised Brent and WTI oil price forecasts for 2027 to $80 and $75, respectively, on new assumptions of shipping disruptions continuing into next year.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to oil prices as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.4% to 98.75 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil slipped 0.4% to $90.39 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 0.3% to trade at $95.46 per barrel this morning.
In other commodities trading, natural gas prices fell 0.9% to $2.949, while gasoline gained 0.1% to $3.2190 and heating oil price jumped 2.7% to $4.6644.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the US-Iran conflict.
Data on the EIA (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stocks change will be released on Thursday, a day later than usual, as the US markets were closed Monday for the Labour Day holiday. US crude stockpiles fell by 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, recording the first decline in five weeks. US gasoline stockpiles contracted by 1.173 million barrels in the week, while US heating oil inventories declined by 0.033 million barrels.
Context: The Japanese yen surged to a seven-month high versus the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest economic data.
Details: The Japanese yen, which fell to a 40-year low in July, recorded sharp gains this morning amid rising expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month.
An economic adviser to Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that the BoJ could raise interest rates in September and another hike by January 2027.
Upbeat economic reports also provided a boost to overall market sentiment, as Japan’s current account surplus widened to ¥2,988.9 billion in July from ¥2,586.3 billion in the year-ago month. The figure also topped market estimates of ¥2,870 billion.
Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the second quarter, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 1.1%. This marked the third straight quarter of GDP growth, driven by higher government spending.
Japan’s bank lending surged by 5.4% year-over-year in August, unchanged from the prior month.
Average cash earnings in Japan climbed by 4.7% year-over-year in July, topping market estimates of 3.9% and recording the fastest growth since January 1997.
Cooling crude prices this morning also supported the yen, since Japan imports nearly all its oil.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to the Japanese yen. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.4% to 98.75 this morning.
The USD/JPY forex pair fell around 0.8% to 153.18 this morning, sending the Japanese yen to its highest level since February. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 edged higher to 66,426.53.
What to watch: Data on Reuters Tankan index (0300 UAE Time) and machine tool orders (1000 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Wednesday. The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers, which surged to +18 in August from +13 in the previous month, is expected to decline to +15 in September. Japan’s machine tool orders, which jumped by 50.4% year-over-year to ¥193,102 million in July, are expected to rise by 43% in August.
Other Markets: European indices closed mixed on Monday, with the FTSE 100 and DAX 40 down by 0.08% and 0.15%, respectively, and the CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.33% and 0.01%, respectively.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the US is exploring ways to deescalate the war with Russia and restarting talks toward a peace deal. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Australia’s NAB business confidence index declined to -8 in August from -6 in July. Business sentiment falling to the lowest level since May exerted pressure on the AUD/USD forex pair.
The Eurozone’s economy grew by 1.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, decelerating from 0.6% in the first quarter. However, the figure coming in better than the estimate of 1% sent the EUR/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
UK’s retail sales climbed 0.5% year-over-year in August, easing from 1% in the previous month. Retail sales recording the weakest growth since October 2024 exerted pressure on the GBP/USD forex pair.
China’s foreign exchange reserves surged to $3.438 trillion in August from $3.419 trillion in the previous month. The latest reading coming in higher than market estimates of $3.43 trillion sent the USD/CNY pair lower in forex trading this morning.
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