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US big banks report better-than-expected earnings

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Trends & Analysis
News

GBP/USD recovers following wage report

News

Buy the JPMorgan dip?

News

Goldman Sachs shares surge after earnings beat

News

Keep an eye on these key S&P 500 levels

News

US big banks report better-than-expected earnings

News

Crude oil declines on profit taking

Asset Watch

Can crude oil keep climbing?

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

While the AI boom has garnered all the headlines, crude oil quietly hit $80 on Mar. 1. And with central banks in wait-and-see mode, as it pertains to inflation, their patience helps support economic activity, which is bullish for black gold.
S&P Global and J.P. Morgan released their Global Composite PMI on Mar. 1. The headline index hit 50.3 in February (which signals expansion), up from 50.0 in January, marking the first reading above 50.0 in 18 months (since August 2022). The report stated:
“February saw global manufacturing show signs of renewed vigour. Output expanded for the second successive month, supported by the first increase in new order intakes since June 2022.”

With warmer weather only a few months away, crude’s fundamental outlook could brighten in the weeks ahead if the global economy continues to accelerate.

If so, the 100-hour moving average may play an important role in determining the short-term price action. During crude’s bull run in January, the metric acted as support four times following the initial breakout. A similar pattern is present now, with successful bounces near the 100-hour MA occurring last week.

The Mar. 1 surge also resulted in a breakout above the January highs, and if the 100-hour MA holds (near $78.50), we may see $90 unless central banks put their pedal to the metal with rate hikes once again.

So, does crude continue its subtle rally, or will the momentum fizzle in March?


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