Crude climbs past $104 on Trump’s Hormuz blockade

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Crude oil prices rose sharply this morning, recovering losses from last week.

What happened: US President Donald Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, following failed negotiations with Iran over the weekend.

Strength in the US dollar limited the overall rally in crude oil prices this morning.

Why it matters: A two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8, to allow for talks between the US and Iran to end the war that started on February 28.

US and Iran delegations met in Islamabad over the weekend but failed to reach an agreement. While the US continued to accuse Iran of having “nuclear ambitions,” Tehran refused to accept Washington’s terms after 21 hours of negotiations.

President Trump on Sunday said that the US Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz for vessels of all ‌nations entering and leaving Iranian ports. The US said that the transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian ports will remain unaffected.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that any military tankers looking to approach the Strait would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for around 20% of global crude and gas supplies and its closure has resulted in significant disruption in the energy markets.

Minutes release last week from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting signalled that policymakers were concerned about sustained inflationary pressures and may hike interest rates.

Strength in the US dollar weighed on oil prices, as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.4% to 99.06 this morning.

Spot price for WTI crude oil jumped 9.1% to $104.52 per barrel this morning, while Brent crude gained 7.4% to trade at $104.13 per barrel.

In other commodities trading, gasoline rose 4% to $3.1583, while natural gas rose 1.3% to $2.682 and heating oil climbed 8.3% to $4.0734.

What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the ongoing developments related to US-Iran war following the failed negotiations over the weekend.

Data on the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stocks change will be released on Wednesday. US crude inventories jumped by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, while US gasoline stockpiles declined by 1.6 million barrels to 239.3 million barrels.

The markets today

The Canadian dollar in focus today ahead of building permits data

Context: The Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest jobs data.

Details: Data released on Friday showed that employment in Canada rose by 14,000 in March, following a cumulative loss of 109,000 during the first two months of 2026. The figure came in lower than market estimates of a 15,000 rise.

Canada’s unemployment rate came in unchanged from the previous month, at 6.7% in March, slightly below market estimates of 6.8%.

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious after US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. US President Donald Trump also announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz for all vessels leaving or entering Iran.

Strength in the US dollar weighed on the Canadian currency. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.4% to 99.06 this morning.

Higher prices of crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, lent some support to the loonie. Spot price for WTI crude oil jumped 9.1% to $104.52 per barrel this morning.

The USD/CAD forex pair rose more than 0.1% to 1.3861 this morning.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the developments related to the Middle East conflict.

Data on Canada’s building permits (1630 UAE Time) will be released today. Building permits in Canada, which jumped by 4.8% to C$13.3 billion in January following 6.1% growth in the previous month, are expected to decline by 0.5% in February.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones index and S&P 500 down by 0.56% and 0.11%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.14%.

The news shaping the markets

Ukraine and Russia accused each other of violating the Orthodox Easter ceasefire. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ performance of services index fell to 46.0 in March from 47.6 in the previous month. Services activity contracting for the second straight month exerted pressure on the NZD/USD forex pair.

Indonesia’s new car sales dipped 13.8% year-over-year to 61,271 units in March, following the previous month’s 12.3% jump, which sent the USD/IDR pair higher in forex trading this morning.

Italy’s industrial production grew 0.1% in February following a 0.6% decline in the previous month. The reading missing market estimates of a 0.5% gain exerted pressure on the EUR/USD forex pair.

Brazil’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.14% in March from 3.81% in the previous month. The rate coming in higher than market estimates of 4.0% sent the USD/BRL pair lower in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

India’s inflation rate (1430 UAE Time), Russia’s balance of trade (1700 UAE Time) and US existing home sales (1800 UAE Time).