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Thursday, November 12, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil prices traded lower this morning as investors monitored the recent developments in the Middle East.
What happened: Hopes of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran as well as Russia and Ukraine weighed on oil prices.
Meanwhile, strength in the US dollar also exerted pressure on oil prices this morning ahead of today’s US crude inventories data release.
Why it matters: Investors continued monitoring developments across Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Following two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi that wrapped up on Wednesday, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed to a major prisoner exchange.
However, US mediators noted significant disagreements over core issues like territory, despite Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressing hope of tangible progress toward ending the war this year.
Meanwhile, Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei said that Tehran will not let any enriched nuclear material leave the country. Iran also reiterated its demand that the US lift economic sanctions and end the naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, so that the key route for global oil shipments can reopen.
The OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) reported a surge in crude oil production for October, driven by a sharp rise in Saudi Arabia’s output despite persistent disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz route.
Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude stockpiles grew by 9 million barrels in the recent week.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on oil prices this morning as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged higher to 102.95 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil fell around 0.5% to $85.02 a barrel this morning, while Brent crude shed 0.7% to reach $90.90 a barrel.
The US crude oil benchmark remained almost 20% below October’s highs, as crude supplies from the Middle East continued to rebound.
In other energy trading, gasoline fell 0.5% to $2.5944, while heating oil slipped 0.1% to $4.2062. Natural gas bucked trend, rising 2.2% to $3.287.
What to watch: Data on the US EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stocks (2100 UAE Time) will be released today. US crude oil inventories, which declined by 0.865 million barrels in the week ended October 30, are expected to contract by 1.1 million barrels in the latest week. US gasoline stockpiles, which declined by 0.222 million barrels, are projected to fall by 0.1 million barrels. Analysts expect distillate stockpiles to decline by 1 million barrels, following a contraction of 3.565 million barrels in the previous session.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair traded lower this morning as investors monitored the recent inflation reading.
Details: Data released this morning showed that Australia’s consumer inflation expectations remained at 5.3% in November, unchanged from October and remaining at the highest reading since June.
The latest reading remained elevated as headline inflation in September surged to a six-month high of 4.3%, above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%-3% target range.
The central bank raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.85% at its recent meeting earlier this month, announcing its fifth rate hike this year and raising borrowing costs to the highest level since 2008.
RBA officials also warned that high inflation may continue for longer than expected, amid higher fuel prices. Policymakers expect inflation to return within the central bank’s target range by mid-2028.
Strength in the US dollar also weighed on the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose to 102.95.
The AUD/USD forex pair fell around 0.1% to 0.6844 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 declined more than 0.3% to trade at 9,122.00.
What to watch: With no major economic reports scheduled for this week, investors await the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent meeting and the jobs report next week. Employment in Australia, which fell by 39,300 to 14.78 million in September, is expected to rise by 34,000 in October. Analysts expect Australia’s unemployment rate to remain at 4.7% in October, unchanged from the previous month.
Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.78%, 1.20%, 0.66% and 0.72%.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin today, hoping to make some progress on issues discussed during peace talks in Abu Dhabi. The news sent the USD/RUB lower in forex trading this morning.
UK’s house price balance fell to -36% in October from -34% in the previous month. This being the weakest reading since November 2023 exerted pressure on the GBP/USD forex pair.
Japan’s producer prices jumped 7.1% year-over-year in October, accelerating from 6.8% in the previous month. The latest reading topping market estimates of 6.5% sent the USD/JPY pair higher in forex trading this morning.
New Zealand’s electronic card transactions fell 0.7% in October, compared to a 0.4% decline in the previous month, which exerted pressure on the NZD/USD forex pair.
China’s total vehicle sales plunged 9.2% year-over-year to 3.016 million units in October, after an 8.4% decline in September. However, the USD/CNY pair fell in forex trading this morning.
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