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News

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Week Ahead Preview: 17th of February

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Crude oil retreats from a 5-month high

Friday, January 17, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Crude oil prices settled lower on Thursday, after recording sharp gains in the previous session.

What happened: Crude oil had closed at its strongest level since mid-August on Wednesday, after data showed US inventories contracting for the eighth consecutive week.

US President Joe Biden’s fresh sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers had also supported oil prices.

Why it matters: WTI crude prices jumped more than 3% on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude inventories had declined for the eighth straight week.

Domestic commercial crude supplies dipped by 1.961 million barrels during the week ending January 10, compared to market estimates of a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. However, gasoline stockpiles climbed by 5.852 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles surged 3.077 million barrels during the latest week.

The EIA also reported on Thursday that US natural gas supplies fell by 258 billion cubic feet in the week, compared to market estimates of a decline of 251 billion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, the OPEC held its outlook for global oil demand rising by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026.

Last week, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two major oil producers in Russia, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, sending support to crude prices. However, markets widely expect Donald Trump’s team to work on a sanctions strategy that might benefit oil firms in Russia and help in peace talks with Ukraine.

Some weakness in the US dollar lent support to oil prices, as a lower greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 108.96 on Thursday.

WTI crude for February delivery declined $1.36, or 1.7%, to close at $78.68 per barrel on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange), while March Brent crude shed 74 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $81.29 per barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both standards of crude oil fell on profit taking, after settling at their highest levels since August 12 on Wednesday.

In other energy trading, February gasoline declined 1.7 % to $2.12 a gallon, while February heating oil rose 0.1% to $2.62 a gallon and natural gas for February delivery gained 4.3% to $4.26 per million British thermal units, settling at its strongest level since December 30, 2022.

What to watch: Markets will monitor announcements by the new US government with Donald Trump scheduled to enter the White House on Monday.

Data on Baker Hughes oil rig count (2200 UAE Time) will be released today. Crude oil rigs in the US fell to 480 during the week of January 10, from 482 in the previous week.

The markets today

Bank of America in focus today after reporting results for the fourth quarter

Context: Shares of Bank of America slipped on Thursday, despite the US bank reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Details: Bank of America reported upbeat earnings on Thursday, after rivals Citi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo posted strong results on strength in investment banking and the equity markets.

The US stock market had been on an uptrend during the fourth quarter, following the outcome of the US Presidential elections and speculations around Donald Trump’s pro-business policies.

Bank of America reported a quarterly net income of $6.7 billion, up from $3.1 billion in the year-ago period. Revenues, net of interest expenses, surged 15.0% year-over-year to $25.35 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $25.19 billion.

Earnings for the second-largest US lender came in at 82 cents per share, beating consensus estimates of 77 cents per share.

Higher investment banking fees and trading revenues provided a boost to the bank’s overall results. Investment banking fees jumped by 44% to $1.7 billion during the quarter. The bank’s sales and trading revenues grew 10% to $4.1 billion in the fourth quarter.

Management guided to net interest income (NII) between $14.5 billion and $14.6 billion in the first quarter.

How shares responded: Shares of Bank of America declined 1% to close at $46.64 on Thursday, following the release of quarterly results. The stock has gained around 6% over the past six months.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which is expected to impact Bank of America’s overall results ahead.

Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Thursday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 1.09%, 0.39%, 2.14% and 0.98%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he believes the US will continue providing military support after President-elect Donald Trump takes office next week. The news sent the safe-haven US dollar index slightly higher in forex trading this morning.


China’s retail sales grew by 3.7% year-over-year in December, compared to November’s three-month low of 3.0%. The latest reading topping market estimates of 3.5% lent support to the CNY/USD forex pair.


Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped by 9% year-over-year in December, following November’s 3.4% growth. The recent reading also came in better than market estimates of 7.4% rise, which sent the SGD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index improved to 45.9 in December, from 45.5 in November, lending support to the NZD/USD forex pair.


Brazil’s Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index fell to 49.1 in January. Despite this being the fourth straight month of decline, the BRL/USD pair rose in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Eurozone’s current account (1300 UAE Time) and inflation rate (1400 UAE Time), Spain’s balance of trade (1300 UAE Time), Italy’s current account (1400 UAE Time), India’s bank loan growth (1530 UAE Time), deposit growth (1530 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Canada’s foreign securities purchases (1730 UAE Time), as well as US building permits (1730 UAE Time), housing starts (1730 UAE Time), industrial production (1815 UAE Time), capacity utilization (1815 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1815 UAE Time).


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