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Gold prices fall on US dollar strength

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors chose the US dollar as their preferred safe-haven option.

What happened: The US dollar climbed to more than a two-year high following strong NFP data released last week, which showed strength in the labour market.

The data increased speculations of the Federal Reserve proceeding more cautiously with lowering interest rates this year.

Why it matters: With gold prices having risen sharply over the past week, investors began the new week by booking profits.

Data released on Friday showed that the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, better than market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, better than market estimates of 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December, following a 0.4% gain in November.

Before the report, markets were pricing in the Fed lowering its benchmark interest rate by 40 basis points (bps) this year. With the report exhibiting strength in the US labour market, investors now expect the central bank cutting rates by only 25bps in 2025. Higher interest rates make the non-yielding gold less attractive.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, surged to its strongest level since November 2022. A higher US dollar makes metals more expensive for foreign currency holders.

Gold futures fell around 1.3% to settle at $2,678.60 an ounce on Monday.

In other metals trading, silver futures lost more than 3% to reach $30.309 an ounce, platinum fell more than 2% to $975.1 and palladium fell to $941.40.

What to watch: With Donald Trump being scheduled to be sworn in as the 47th US President next week, markets are bracing for the impact of his policies on other nations, which could support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Investors await economic reports on inflation data, retail sales and jobless claims from the US this week, which are expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy. The annual inflation rate in the US, which accelerated for a second straight month to 2.7% in November, is expected to rise further to 2.8% in December. Analysts expect US retail sales to grow 4% year-over-year in December, following a 3.8% rise in the previous month.

The markets today

The Canadian dollar in focus today ahead of some major economic reports this week

Context: The CAD/USD forex pair gained on Monday, as investors monitored last week’s jobs report.

Details: Data released on Friday showed employment in Canada rose by 91,000 in December, representing the biggest gain since January 2023. The figure was much better than the previous month’s 51,000 increase. The latest reading also topped market estimates of 25,000 by a wide margin.

Canada’s unemployment rate eased to 6.7% in December, from 6.8% in the previous month and came in below market estimates of 6.9%.

Other data released on Friday showed the country’s total value of building permits declined by 5.9% to $11.7 billion in November, compared to a 4.1% decline in the previous month.

Strength in price of crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, provided another boost to the loonie. WTI crude oil futures jumped almost 3% to settle at $78.82 a barrel on Monday. However, strength in the US dollar limited the overall gains for the CAD/USD forex pair.

The CAD/USD forex pair rose to 1.4380 on Monday. The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.93% to close at 24,536.32, recording losses for the second session.

What to watch: With no major economic report due today, investors await the release of data on manufacturing sales (1730 UAE Time) and wholesale sales (1730 UAE Time) from Canada on Wednesday.

Analysts expect manufacturing sales in Canada to grow 0.5% in November, much lower than the 2.1% gain in October. Wholesale sales are projected to decline by 0.7% in November, versus 1% growth in the previous month.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones index and S&P 500 up by 0.86% and 0.16%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 down by 0.30%.

The news shaping the markets

The European Union is looking to announce its 16th package of sanctions to target Russia’s economy. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Australia’s private house approvals declined by 1.7% to 9,028 units in November, in-line with the preliminary reading. However, the figure being better than the 4.0% plunge in October lent some support to the AUD/USD forex pair.


Colombia’s consumer confidence index improved to a reading of -3.4 in December, from -5.7 in November, sending the COP/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


Poland reported a trade deficit of €1.646 billion in November, wider than the year-ago gap of €571 million, exerting pressure on the PLN/USD forex pair.


Japan’s current account surplus widened to ¥3,352.5 billion in November, from ¥2,170.2 billion in the year-ago period. However, the JPY/USD pair fell in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Italy’s industrial production (1300 UAE Time), US NFIB business optimism index (1500 UAE Time), PPI (1730 UAE Time), Redbook index (1755 UAE Time) and RCM/TIPP economic optimism index (1905 UAE Time), Russia’s foreign exchange reserves (1700 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s inflation rate (2300 UAE Time).


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