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Thursday, October 15, 2026
What’s happening: Gold prices rose this morning after recording sharp losses in the previous session.
What happened: Hotter-than-expected inflation data from the US resulted in a sharp selloff in gold on Wednesday.
A decline in crude prices, weakness in the US dollar and reports of heavy gold buying by central banks supported the yellow metal.
Why it matters: Gold has declined by more than 20% since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict that caused energy supply disruptions and raised global inflationary concerns.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.7% in September, recording its highest reading in four months. The figure also came in above market estimates of 3.6%, driven mainly by higher energy costs.
The higher-than-expected reading on inflation fuelled speculations of the Federal Reserve hiking its benchmark interest rates at its meeting later this month.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council released figures for the third quarter, showing that central banks had bought an estimated net 296 tonnes of gold, while global ETF demand grew by 211 tonnes. Together these figures represent the highest purchases in 23 years.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to gold prices as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.5% to 102.09 this morning.
Spot price for gold gained 0.8% to $4,137.15 an ounce this morning, following a sharp sell-off in the previous session.
In other metals trading, spot price for silver rose 0.7% to $56.0530 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.3% to $1,607.83 and palladium prices surged 1% to $1,106.86.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the developments related to the US-Iran conflict.
The US is scheduled to release data on retail sales (1630 UAE Time), initial jobless claims (1630 UAE Time) and PPI (1630 UAE Time) today. Retail sales in the US, which grew 1.2% in August, are expected to grow by 0.3% in September. Analysts expect producer prices in the US to rise by 0.5% in September following a 0.4% gain in August.
The number of people claiming jobless benefits, which declined by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week ending October 3, is expected to rise to 200,000 in the latest week.
Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh’s speech at the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok on Friday will also remain in focus.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair fell this morning as investors responded to Australia’s weak jobs data.
Details: Data released this morning showed that Australia’s jobless rate remained at a five-year high of 4.7% in September. The figure came in above market estimates of 4.6%, while the previous month’s data was also revised higher from an initial reading of 4.6%.
The economy lost 39,300 jobs in September, following a 29,300 rise in the previous month. This was significantly worse than market estimates of a 20,000 gain.
The latest reading signalled some weakness in the labour market after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.60% this year to combat elevated inflation.
With the softening labour market data, investors lowered speculations of the RBA hiking interest rates this year.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to the Australian currency. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.5% to 102.09 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair fell around 0.2% to 0.6956 this morning.
What to watch: Data on S&P Global manufacturing PMI, S&P Global services PMI and S&P Global composite PMI from Australia will be released next week. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI, which declined to 49.6 in September from 52.0 in August, is expected to fall further to 49.4 in October.
Analysts expect the S&P Global services PMI business activity index to decline to 51.1 in October from 51.9 in the previous month, while the composite PMI is projected to fall to 50.5 in October from 51.3 in September.
Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.70%, 0.15%, 0.58% and 0.43%, respectively.
Ukrainian drones struck over 100km into Russian territory in the Saratov region. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s core machine orders surged by 5.2% to ¥1,069.8 billion in August, recovering from a 3.7% decline in the previous month. The latest reading topping market estimates of a 3% gain exerted pressure on the USD/JPY forex pair.
Sri Lanka’s number of foreign tourist arrivals declined by 0.26% year-over-year to 158,557 in September, compared to a 3.3% plunge in the previous month, which sent the USD/LKR pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Canada’s building permits jumped 8.8% to C$13.6 billion in August, recovering from the previous month’s 15.8% decline. The latest reading coming in above market estimates of a 2.6% gain exerted pressure on the USD/CAD forex pair.
Spain’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.9% in September from 4.3% in the previous month. However, the EUR/USD pair rose in forex trading this morning.
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