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Asset Watch

Is Apple’s bull run just getting started?

Thursday June 13, 2024

It was Apple’s turn to grab the AI baton, and investors ran with the narrative on 11 Jun. The stock soared to a new all-time high, and analysts from Morgan Stanley and Evercore said the best is yet to come. The former wrote:
“We have even greater conviction that Apple is on the cusp of a multi-year product refresh that underpins our [overweight] rating, $216 price target, and $270 bull case valuation.”
…While the latter commented:
“Restricting Apple Intelligence to iPhones sold within the last year adds to our conviction that AI can help kick off an iPhone super cycle.”
Apple will only provide AI upgrades for devices made within the last 12 months. As a result, the policy should encourage users with older iPhones to upgrade to take advantage of the new features.

But though the hype is palpable, should you be a buyer or seller at these levels?
The best way to play it is to monitor the $200 range. Apple’s July and December 2023 highs were in this area and the 11 Jun. surge would represent a breakout if it holds. If $200 becomes support, that could be your cue that the bulls are in firm control.
On the other hand, a breakdown below $200 may elicit a pullback to the 50-week moving average near $183. The key area acted as support in October 2023 and January 2024 before a breakdown occurred in February 2024 – also an important medium-term trend indicator.
Though Apple made a new high on 11 Jun., its weekly RSI made a lower high (the blue line at the bottom). The bearish divergence signals waning momentum, but the metric can be hit and miss. As such, holding above $200 is the most important factor for the bulls right now.
So, will Apple’s momentum continue in the weeks ahead, or should you wait for a correction before making your move?


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