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Asset Watch
Thursday, June 15, 2023
Chairman Jerome Powell said in May 2022:
“You can see that there’s a labour shortage. There aren’t enough people to fill these job openings. And companies can’t hire, and wages are moving up at levels that would not be consistent with 2% inflation over time… There’s an imbalance there that we have to work on.”
The important part to remember is that the S&P 500 has followed JOLTS job openings for the last 20+ years. The blue line below tracks the S&P 500, while the red line below tracks JOLTS job openings. If you analyse the right side of the chart, you can see that the S&P 500’s recent surge contrasts JOLTS’ weakness. If the Fed successfully reduces the metric to its pre-pandemic level, the red line would fall substantially.
So, will the S&P 500 confront long-term trouble, or is the relationship poised to break?
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