Nasdaq jumps over 1% amid US-Iran deal hopes

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: US stocks closed higher on Monday amid hopes of a deal being reached between the US and Iran.

What happened: While the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement over the weekend, both sides said that the door had been left open for continued discussions.

Although President Donald Trump continued to issue threats, market sentiment was lifted by hopes of a resolution.

Why it matters: Following the failed talks over the weekend, Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for vessels of all ‌nations entering and leaving Iranian ports starting Monday. Despite this, reports of vessels passing through the Strait provided some boost to market sentiment.

While Trump continued to issue threats, several officials indicated that there could be another round of face-to-face talks.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian also said that Tehran is fully prepared to reach a deal that guarantees lasting regional peace and security.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs kicked off the first-quarter earnings season with better-than-expected results.

The Dow Jones index jumped 301.68 points, or 0.63%, to close at 48,218.25, while the S&P 500 surged 1.02% to 6,886.24 on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.06% to settle at 25,383.72.

Financial and tech stocks were among the top performers on Monday, both gaining over 1.7%. While stocks of Oracle and Credo Technology jumped more than 12%, shares of Snowflake and Cloudflare rose more than 10%. Defensive utilities and consumer staples bucked the market trend, closing lower on Monday.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the developments related to US-Iran war.

Data on NFIB business optimism index (1400 UAE Time), ADP employment change weekly (1615 UAE Time) and PPI (1630 UAE Time) will be released today. The NFIB small business optimism index in the US, which declined to 98.8 in February from 99.3 in the previous month, is expected to fall fuIrther to 98.6 in March. US producer prices, which rose 0.7% in February, are expected to surge by 1.2% in March.

Investors also await quarterly results from major banks on Tuesday, including Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.

The markets today

The Australian dollar in focus today ahead of jobs data this week

Context: The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest economic data.

Details: Data released this morning showed Australia’s NAB business confidence index dipped to -29 in March from a reading of zero in the previous month. The latest reading signalled the second-biggest monthly decline on record and the lowest reading since April 2020.

Australia’s business confidence was impacted by the Middle East conflict, which resulted in sharp volatility in oil markets and weighed significantly on overall investor sentiment.

Australia’s Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index also tumbled 12.5% to a two-and-a-half -year low of 80.1 in April compared to a 1.2% gain in March.

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious after news of failed negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend. Trump continued to issue threats, while Iran indicated that it was open to reaching a deal with further discussions.

Strength in the US dollar weighed on the AUD/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged higher to 98.39 this morning.

The AUD/USD forex pair fell more than 0.1% to 0.7083, while the S&P/ASX 200 gained around 0.6% to reach 8,978.40 this morning.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the Middle East war.

Jobs data from Australia will be released on Thursday. Employment in Australia, which surged by 48,900 to a fresh high of 14.75 million in February, is expected to rise by 20,000 in March. Australia’s unemployment rate, which climbed to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in the previous two months, is expected to remain at 4.3% in March. Analysts expect the labour force participation rate in Australia to decline slightly to 66.8% in March from 66.9% in February.

Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Monday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.17%, 0.26%, 0.29% and 0.16%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine for Orthodox Easter formally expired on Monday, with both sides accusing each other of several violations. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.

Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, slowing from 5.7% in the previous quarter. The latest reading coming in below market estimates of 5.4% lent support to the USD/SGD forex pair.

Ireland’s AIB construction PMI rose to 53.2 in March from 52.1 in the previous month. The latest reading signalling the fastest expansion since March 2025 sent the EUR/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.

UK’s retail sales surged 3.1% year-on-year in March. This being sharply higher than market estimates of a 0.9% rise lent support to the GBP/USD forex pair.

New Zealand’s visitor arrivals jumped 15.2% year-over-year to 408,142 in February, up from 4.1% growth in January. However, the NZD/USD pair fell in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

South Africa’s gold production (1330 UAE Time) and mining production (1330 UAE Time), US Redbook index (1655 UAE Time), Brazil’s business confidence (1800 UAE Time) and Argentina’s inflation rate (2300 UAE Time).