Silver prices await US jobs report

Signs of labour market weakness and underlying factors

Recent US private sector employment data for June showed the first decline in job creation in two years (particularly in the services sector) raising fresh concerns about a potential slowdown in the US labour market. Notably, many employers appear hesitant to hire or even replace departing staff.

A key factor contributing to this shift is uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s new tariff policy, which has targeted a wide range of countries and lacks a clear long-term framework. These tariffs were imposed and then selectively suspended to allow room for negotiations with US trading partners, intended to reduce or eliminate tariffs in some sectors without offering complete exemptions. One notable example is the UK-US trade agreement, which left tariffs at 10% on select British goods rather than granting a full exemption.

The US Job market’s outlook will become clearer with the release of the US NFP report today at 4:30 PM, UAE time. The report is expected to show that the US economy added only 111,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May.

Focus shifts to the Federal Reserve Chairman

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has consistently described the US labour market as “solid,” justifying the Fed’s cautious approach toward interest rate cuts. The central bank continues to wait for a clearer picture of how tariffs are impacting economic indicators, especially inflation. Powell has explicitly stated that, without the imposition of tariffs, the Fed would likely have already reduced interest rates.

His stance has drawn criticism from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for aggressive rate cuts (down to 1%) and has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Powell’s leadership. Most recently, Trump called on Powell to “resign immediately.” Powell has not responded but previously affirmed his intention to complete his term, which runs through May of next year.

Silver price technical outlook

On June 26, silver prices corrected lower from their recent uptrend, entering a sideways range characterized by lower highs and higher lows. The price has since rebounded from the low end of the current trading zone located between 35,400 with 37,300 and now appears to be heading toward the high end of the zone.

A daily close above 37,300 would signal a bullish breakout, potentially opening the door for more gains possibly toward the 40,000- mark. That said, psychological resistance levels at 38,000 and 39,000 should be considered.

Key levels to watch in a bearish scenario

Alternatively, silver appears to be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline positioned at the 35,400-support level. If the price breaks and holds below this level this could trigger a bearish trend towards the 32,660 level. In this case, the support levels at 34,850 and 33,440 should be monitored.

Silver Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform