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US dollar surges past 2-year highs on strong NFP

Monday, January 13, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: The US dollar recorded gains on Friday following the release of the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.

What happened: Data released on Friday showed that the world’s largest economy created higher-than-expected jobs last month.

The US dollar was also supported by consumer inflation expectations accelerating in January.

Why it matters: Data released on Friday showed that the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, higher than market expectations of 160,000 job adds. However, the figure came in lower than November’s 212,000 job adds.

The unemployment rate eased to 4.1% and came in better than market estimates of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December, following a 0.4% gain in November. Wages rose 3.9% during the twelve months through December, following a 4.0% increase in November.

Strength in the labour market triggered higher speculations of the Federal Reserve halting its rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting this month, which lent support to the US dollar.

A University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed an increase in inflation expectations, which also led to speculations of the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, supporting the greenback. The report showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.3% in January, the highest level in eight months, compared to 2.8% in the previous month.

The market is now fully pricing in the Fed holding interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, although the US central bank is still expected to lower rates at least by 25 bps this year.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers recorded gains for the sixth straight week and jumped to its strongest level since November 2022. The index gained more than 0.4% to reach 109.64 on Friday.

The USD/JPY forex pair jumped to its strongest level since July but turned lower later during the day. The EUR/USD dipped to its weakest level since November 2022, also recording losses for a second consecutive week. The GBP/USD forex pair fell to its lowest level since November 2023.

What to watch: Investors await the release of data on consumer inflation expectations (2000 UAE Time) and monthly budget statement (2300 UAE Time) today.

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead, which rose to 3% in November from 2.9% in October, are expected to accelerate further to 3.1% in December. The US government, which reported a budget deficit of $367 billion for November, is projected to report a $67.6 billion gap for December.

The markets today

European stocks in focus today ahead of this week’s inflation data

Context: Equity markets in the Eurozone settled lower on Friday as investors reacted to the NFP report from the US.

Details: Eurozone’s government bond yields jumped to new multi-month highs on Friday following the release of US jobs data. Germany’s 10-year bund yields climbed to their highest since July earlier in the session, before falling slightly as the session progressed.

The ongoing debt market crisis in the UK also weighed on overall market sentiment. Yields on some British government bonds had climbed to their highest levels in decades last week.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 0.84% to close at 511.50 on Friday, with almost all major sectors settling in the negative zone. Utilities and food and beverage stocks were among the worst performers, while autos bucked the overall market trend, gaining around 0.5% on Friday.

Germany’s DAX 40 and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.50% and 0.79%, respectively. London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.86% to settle at 8,248.49.

What to watch: With no major economic report scheduled for today, investors await the release of data on inflation rate from the Eurozone on Friday. The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to accelerate for a third consecutive month to 2.4% in December, from 2.2% in the previous month.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 1.63%, 1.54% and 1.57%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

The Trump administration’s national security advisor, Mike Walz, said that the President elect is scheduled to have a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a few days. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


China’s trade surplus widened to $104.84 billion in December, from $75.31 billion in the year-ago period. However, the country’s imports climbed 1.0% year-over-year to a 27-month high of $230.79 billion, higher than market estimates of a 1.5% decline, exerting some pressure on the CNY/USD forex pair.


Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.6% in December, compared to a 0.2% rise in the previous month, sending the AUD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Canada’s total value of building permits fell by 5.9% to $11.7 billion in November, versus market estimates of a 1.3% gain, exerting pressure on the CAD/USD forex pair.


Mexico’s industrial output declined by 1.4% year-over-year in November, compared to a 2.1% fall in the previous month, sending the MXN/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

India’s inflation rate (1430 UAE Time), as well as Brazil’s car production (1700 UAE Time) and new car registrations (1700 UAE Time).


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