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Trends & Analysis
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News

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EUR rises as Germany plans massive spending surge

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Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: US stocks fell sharply on Monday amid economic uncertainty.

What happened: US President Donald Trump said in a recent interview that the economy is undergoing a “period of transition,” triggering economic growth concerns.

Wall Street extended last week’s losses as the trade war started by Trump’s tariff policy intensifies.

Why it matters: All three major stock indices declined on Monday, after recording losses last week. The S&P 500 logged its biggest weekly percentage decline since September last week and is down 8.6% from its record closing high that it hit less than a month back.

The S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-session decline since December 18 on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 4.0% to record its biggest single-day percentage decline since September 2022.

The latest NFP (nonfarm payrolls) report also suggested some softness in the US labour market, while the ISM manufacturing PMI signalled that firms are already seeing disruptions from the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

After Trump slapped 10% additional tariffs on China, the Asian nation imposed retaliatory tariffs on farm products from the US. In the latest move, the US has threatened tariffs on select base metals to be imposed later this week.

Data released on Monday showed US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in February, from 3% in the previous three months.

Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, tech shares were the worst performers, losing around 4.4% on Monday. Tesla’s stock tumbled more than 15%, recording the biggest single-session decline since September 2020.

The Dow Jones index tumbled 890 points, or 2.08%, to close at 41,911.71, while the S&P 500 dipped 2.70% to settle at 5,614.56 on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.81% to close at 19,430.95.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.

Data on inflation rate, due to be released on Wednesday, will also remain in focus. The annual inflation rate in the US, which accelerated to 3% in January from 2.9% in December, is expected to ease to 2.9% in February.

The Producer Price Inflation data will be released on Thursday. Analysts expect US factory gate prices rising 0.3% in February, following a 0.4% rise in the previous month.

The markets today

The Canadian dollar in focus today ahead of the BoC’s rate decision

Context: The CAD/USD forex pair rose this morning amid weakness in the US dollar.

Details: Data released on Friday showed Canada’s economy added around 1,100 positions in February, much below the 57,000 added in the previous month. The figure was also significantly short of market expectations of 20,000.

Canada’s unemployment rate came in unchanged at 6.6% in February, versus January’s three-month low. However, its was better than market estimates of 6.7%.

After being named as Canada’s next Prime Minister, Mark Carney said in a speech that the country would “never ever be part of America.” He added that Canada’s retaliatory measures will remain in place until the US was willing to remove tariffs.

Weakness in the US dollar lent support to the CAD/USD forex pair on Monday. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell about 0.1% to 103.72 this morning.

However, a decline in the price of crude oil, one of Canada’s major exports, weighed on the loonie. WTI crude oil prices declined more than 0.2% to $65.88 a barrel this morning.

The CAD/USD pair gained around 0.1% to 1.4422 this morning, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index dipped 1.53% to close at 24,380.71 on Monday.

What to watch: Investors await the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Canada’s central bank had lowered its key interest rate by 25bps to 3% during its January meeting and is expected to cut rates again by 25 bps at its upcoming meeting.

Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Monday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.92%, 1.69%, 0.90% and 1.29%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Saudi Arabia to visit the Crown Prince and Prime Minister to find support to end the war with Russia. The news sent the safe-haven US dollar index lower in forex trading this morning.


Ireland’s estate construction PMI rose to 48.7 in February, from 48.2 in the previous month, which lent support to the EUR/USD forex pair.


Australia’s NAB business confidence index plunged to -1 in February, from 5 in the previous month. This being the first negative reading of the year sent the AUD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Japan’s economy grew by 2.2% on an annualised basis in the fourth quarter, accelerating from 1.4% in the previous quarter and lending support to the JPY/USD forex pair.


UK’s retail sales grew by 0.9% year-over-year in February, slowing from January’s 2.5% surge. Despite the figure coming in below market expectations of 2.4%, the GBP/USD pair rose in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

US NFIB business optimism index (1400 UAE Time), Redbook index (1755 UAE Time), JOLTs job openings (1800 UAE Time) and JOLTs job quits (1800 UAE Time), as well as Brazil’s industrial production (1600 UAE Time).


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