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Trends & Analysis
News

Goldman Sachs shares surge after earnings beat

News

Keep an eye on these key S&P 500 levels

News

US big banks report better-than-expected earnings

News

Crude oil declines on profit taking

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Delta Air Lines shares crash despite earnings beat

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GBP spikes ahead of major economic data

Trends & Analysis
News

Goldman Sachs shares surge after earnings beat

News

Keep an eye on these key S&P 500 levels

News

US big banks report better-than-expected earnings

News

Crude oil declines on profit taking

News

Delta Air Lines shares crash despite earnings beat

News

GBP spikes ahead of major economic data

Weekly Market Preview

Week Ahead Preview:

18th of December

 

Friday, Dec 15, 2023

Last week concluded with a clearer perspective on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy, aligning somewhat with the market’s anticipation of potential US interest rate cuts. However, there was a discrepancy in the magnitude, with the market pricing in a reduction of more than 100 basis points, while it didn’t manifest in the Fed’s dot plot, which suggested a decrease of just over 75 bps. For further details on the Federal Reserve meeting, you can refer to this link.

The European Central Bank’s meeting mirrored its American counterpart, maintaining unchanged interest rates and signalling the end of the interest rate hike cycle. There were hints at a potential shift in the current monetary policy for the upcoming year, as the phrase “expecting high levels of inflation for longer” was removed from the ECB statement however, the central bank concluded that high rates could remain as necessary, suggesting a longer timeline than expected for initiating interest rate reductions.

In comparison, the Bank of England adopted a more hawkish stance, emphasizing the necessity for interest rates to stay elevated for an extended period. Despite this, markets still anticipate the possibility of commencing reductions in British interest rates next summer.

Looking ahead, this week brings a cluster of crucial data, notably European and British inflation levels, along with the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Although no changes are expected in the current Japanese interest rate policy, investors will scrutinize any indications of a potential shift in the prolonged accommodative monetary policy. This anticipation aligns with the markets’ outlook, suggesting the Japanese central bank might consider raising interest rates in the first half of the coming year.

In terms of inflation levels, predictions indicate a decline in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY from 4.2% in October to 3.6% in November for the Eurozone. Correspondingly, the UK’s core CPI YoY is anticipated to decrease from 5.7% in October to 5.5% in November. Consequently, any lower-than-expected data might encourage markets to factor in more significant cuts in the UK and Europe.

 

Economic Data Highlights (As per UAE time) 

 

Monday 18th of December
  • EUR- Business climate expectations (Germany-Dec)
  • CAD- New housing price index (Nov)
Tuesday 19th of December
  • JPY – interest rate decision
  • EUR- Inflation rates (Nov)
  • USD- Housing starts (Nov)
  • CAD- Inflation rates (Nov)
Wednesday 20th of December
  • PBoC Rate decision
  • GBP- inflation rates (Nov)
  • USD-consumer confidence (Dec)
  • USD- Existing home sales (Nov)
  • US Crude inventories
Thursday 21th of December
  • USD- GDP (Q3)
  • CAD- Retail sales (Oct)
Friday 22th of December
  • GBP- Retail sales (Nov)
  • GBP- GDP (Q3)
  • USD- Durable goods order (Nov)
  • USD- PCE (Nov)
  • CAD- GDP (Oct)
  • USD- New Home Sales (Nov)

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