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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 21st February 2025
This week, markets will be closely watching a series of economic data releases that could impact price movements, particularly US and European inflation levels, as well as the second estimate of US GDP for Q4.
A major focus will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Forecasts suggest the headline PCE could decline annually from 2.6% in December to 2.5% in January, while the core PCE is expected to ease from 2.8% to 2.7%. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Fed may hold interest rates steady until mid-year, providing support for the US dollar.
Meanwhile, investors will closely examine the final European inflation data for January. The YoY headline is expected to rise annually from 2.4% in December to 2.5% in January, while the YoY core inflation is projected to hold steady at 2.7%. Notably, some ECB policymakers have suggested lowering the neutral interest rate ceiling from 2.5% to a range of 1.75%–2.25% to support economic growth, which has struggled to exceed 1% for nearly two years. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, the ECB may find it difficult to accelerate rate cuts and could instead maintain its current pace of reductions.
Monday, 24th of February
Tuesday, 25th of February
Wednesday, 26th of February
Thursday, 27th of February
Friday, 28th of February
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