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Trends & Analysis
News

Crude oil dips for 3rd session after supply data

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News

Buy the JPMorgan dip?

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Weekly Market Preview

Week Ahead Preview:

29th of January

 

Friday, Jan 26, 2023

Last week, the investor’s focus was on the US GDP data (Q4-23) which pleasantly surprised with a growth rate of 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2%. Despite a decline from 4.9% in (Q3-23) the fourth-quarter growth figure indicates sustained consumer spending capability. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank meeting unfolded as expected, maintaining interest rate unchanged at 4%.

This week, investors are eagerly anticipating key economic data, notably the European GDP data for (Q4-23). Expectations suggest a potential contraction of the European economy by 0.1%, following a similar contraction in the third quarter. A negative result would thrust the Eurozone into technical recession, intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank to accelerate its plans of rate cuts. Conversely, any growth (above 0%) would signal an escape from recession, possibly deferring the expected interest rate cuts to the June meeting.

Another pivotal event on the horizon is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, projected to maintain rates at 5.5%. However, investors are keenly observing the Fed’s upcoming policy, particularly seeking hints in Mr. Powell’s speech regarding the potential timeline for initiating interest rate reductions this year. Any suggestion of a possible start in the March meeting (though improbable) could negatively impact US dollar prices.

It’s noteworthy that the Fed Chair might reiterate its data dependence policy, based on the evolution of inflation rates and labour market data. At the week’s end, the US jobs report for December will be released, with expectations hinting at the addition of 162,000 jobs. A figure surpassing this would provide grounds for Federal Reserve members to maintain higher for longer interest rates, benefiting US dollar prices. Conversely, any lower-than-expected reading would not favour the strength of the dollar.

 

Economic Data Highlights (As per UAE time) 

 

Tuesday 30th of January 
  • AUD- Retail Sales (Dec)
  • EUR- GDP (Q4-23)
  • USD- Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • USD- JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
Wednesday 31th of January 
  • JPY-Industrial Production (Dec)
  • AUD- inflation rates (Q4)
  • CNY- Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jan)
  • EUR- Unemployment and inflation rates (Germany – Jan)
  • USD- ADP Employment Change (Dec)
  • US Crude inventories
  • Fed Rate Decision & Chairman Powell press conference
Thursday 1st of February 
  • EUR- Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • GBP- Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • OPEC meeting
  • EUR- Inflation Rates (Jan)
  • Bank Of England Rate Decision
  • USD- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Friday 2nd of February 
  • USD- Non farm Payrolls and Unemployment rates (Dec)
  • Michigan consumer expectations (Jan)

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