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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 27 June 2025
Markets are closely watching a series of key economic data releases this week, with particular focus on the European Consumer Price Index report for June. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the YoY headline inflation is expected to rise slightly from 2.0% in May to 2.1% in June, while the YoY core inflation is projected to increase from 2.3% to 2.4%.
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady at 2.0% in its latest meeting, following a series of eight rate cuts that began in June of last year. Alongside inflation, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States remain a crucial factor shaping the ECB’s monetary policy outlook. Should talks break down and tensions escalate through the imposition of mutual tariffs, the ECB may be compelled to ease policy further to support economic growth, which could be adversely affected by a trade dispute.
At the same time, ECB policymakers continue to closely monitor inflation trends. If CPI readings fall below expectations, this could pave the way for a potential rate cut at the September meeting.
Later in the week, attention will turn to the U.S. labour market, with the release of the June jobs report. Employment and inflation data remain key inputs for Federal Reserve decision-making. Bloomberg estimates suggest the U.S. economy added just 100,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%.
Stronger-than-expected data would indicate continued labour market resilience, likely encouraging the Fed to maintain a “wait-and-see” approach as it evaluates the economic impact of tariffs. This could delay rate cuts until after the September meeting, allowing policymakers to incorporate September’s inflation data before considering a 25-basis-point cut in October and December.
Conversely, weaker job figures would point to a slowing labour market and may increase pressure on the Fed to move more swiftly, possibly cutting rates as early as September.
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