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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, Mar 1, 2024
The January data for the US Personal Spending Index has met expectations. The YoY headline index reading decreased from 2.6% in December to 2.4%, while the YoY core index reading declined from 2.9% to 2.8%. Some members of the Federal Reserve interpreted these figures as signalling the conclusion of a tight monetary policy, implying no intentions for further interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, the prevailing stance among Fed’s committee members remains one of cautious observation. They prefer acquiring more evidence supporting a sustained decline in inflation levels toward their 2% target.
Throughout the current week, markets are eagerly awaiting a busy economic schedule, along with major central bank meetings. The Bank of Canada is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, considering the sustained elevation in inflation levels surpassing their 2% target. Investors are especially interested in the remarks from the central bank’s governor, Mr. Macklem, during the BoC press conference, seeking insights into the possible timing of interest rate cuts, potentially taking place in the June meeting.
At the same time, the European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rates decision which expected to keep them unchanged. The bank will also unveil forecasts for the current and next year regarding growth and inflation levels. The YoY European Consumer Price Index experienced a smaller-than-expected decline, reaching 2.6% in February instead of the projected 2.5% while, the YoY core index remained above the anticipated 2.9%, registering at 3.1%. Given this data, it appears unlikely that ECB President Christine Lagarde to hint at any immediate interest rate cuts during the upcoming press conference following the interest rate decision. This increases the likelihood that any reduction in interest rates may take place in the June meeting, rather than the April meeting.
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