What’s Behind Bitcoin’s over 25% Price Drop?

Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Steep Decline

Bitcoin has lost roughly 27% of its value over several weeks after the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high in the first week of October at $126,272. The price retreated as investor optimism faded following the election of President Trump (known for his support of cryptocurrencies) to the U.S. presidency. This shift prompted some buyers to accelerate profit-taking and exit the market.

Risk appetite further declined after President Trump’s remarks regarding potential tariffs on China, and continued to weaken as investors reassessed technology stocks, particularly those related to artificial intelligence. Today, Investors await NVIDIA’s Q3 earnings report, which could prove pivotal for the sector.

Doubts About the U.S. Interest Rate Cut

It is worth noting that another factor weighed on risk appetite in Wall Street, pushing major equity indices lower: markets repriced the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. This shift came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell questioned the certainty of a rate cut, alongside comments from several Fed members expressing concern about rising inflation and emphasizing the need to prioritize inflation control, even at the expense of the U.S. labor market. As a result, market pricing for a 25-basis-point cut in December fell from nearly 90% to 50%.

Markets now await tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report for September, the first after the government reopened, which will shed important light on the state of the labor market. Forecasts suggest the U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in September, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. If the actual data comes in stronger than expected, it may support the Fed members who oppose a December rate cut, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting further pressure on Bitcoin, while weaker-than-expected data would have the opposite effect.

Bitcoin Price – Technical Analysis

On October 28, Bitcoin closed below the 50-day simple moving average and began a downward trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Yesterday, the cryptocurrency broke below $90,000 for the first time in several months, erasing all gains made in 2025.

Currently, Bitcoin is moving within the trading zone located between $107,470–$88,785. A daily close below $88,785 would signal strong bearish momentum, opening the door to further declines, potentially toward $73,791. In this scenario, support at $81,522 should be monitored closely.

Key Levels to Watch in the Opposite Scenario

Failure to close below $88,785 would indicate weakening bearish momentum due to some seller’s exit from the market. If more sellers continue to close positions, the price may move toward the high end of the current trading zone at $107,470. In this case, the psychological resistance level at $100,000 should be watched carefully.

Notably, the Relative Strength Index has fallen below 30. A rebound above this level would signal fading bearish momentum and the potential for a price recovery.

Bitcoin – Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform